Monday, November 10, 2008

PEABODY HOTEL - the best in town











QUALITY INN - WHERE WE STAYED


LAS VEGAS MARKET

LAS VEGAS MARKET PLACE -
We had breakfast with Keith our contact from Las Vegas this morning. He provided a lot of very useful information about that market which we will now move forwards on and look more closely at the numbers.
The Las Vegas market is in quite a different place to the rest of the States for a number of reasons.
* The forclosure process is a lot less, in other states over 12 months, and now they are backloged with 2 years of foreclosures to deal with in some cases. Las Vegas the foreclosure process only takes 90 days.
* Las Vegas was the first market to be hit, so will be the first market to fully recover
* Las Vegas still has a growing job market, 750 families (I think) per month moving to Las Vegas to work
* There is inventory of 25,000 homes to be sold. There is 15,000 Realtors in Nevada, so if each Realtor only sold 1 home the oversupply would be gone immediately
* There is a shortage of land on which to build homes
* Las Vegas is an international market place
* Las Vegas has a better tax rates
* A lot of the foreclosures do not require any rehab

I will be working with Keith in the coming weeks to look at some specific examples and will share this information to you when it comes to hand.

My final thought - a tax deductibe trip to Vegas to look at ones rental property each year - not that sound like fun!

AMERICA TODAY - PART 2 - Additional comment`

A couple of addiontal points I forgot to cover

It is possible the Government will move tax rates.

One additonal sector in decline - Manufacturing.

MORE PICTURES FROM UNIVERSAL




UNIVERSAL STUDIOS















RESIDENTIAL MARKET

THE RESIDENTIAL MARKET is where the opportunites are right now -
I see these opportunities falling into two distinct categories -
* Those properties that are at give away pricing that need rehab and deliver good yield. Where between now and when the value comes into the property there is excellent cash flow.
* Properties that have pricing that is not in the "giveaway" bracket, but are strategically located, and whose pricing may bounce back quite quickly.

The first scenario is what we have been talking about to date, purchase for US$10k, rehab and rent. No US bank lending available.

The second scenario has a different price point, I am still concluding my research on the price range - but it would definitely be US$150,000 plus. One can borrow from a US bank on these properties. Whilst interest rates are currently around 6% remember what was reported about interest rates in my previous blog, There is a strong expectation that these will reduce substantially as the recsue package kicks in. With these properties one would be buying at a discount to valuation of 40 - 60%.

I will keep positing information as it comes to hand.

Residential Real Estate is definitely where the opportunity is right now - no question.

So it is a matter of moving forwards and firming up the opportunities. This is a process.

AMERICA TODAY - PART TWO

AMERICA TODAY PART TWO is drawn from a speach made by Mark Dotzour and Economist from the Texas A & M University, he travels all over America addressing the market on the subject of Real Estate.
Breakdown of American spending
*71.2% - Consumer spending
* 13.9% - Business and Investment spending
* 20.1% - Government spending
* - 5.2% Net Exports
Consumer Confidence
38, the lowest in the index's 41 year history. WHY?
The Government have received the 700 Billion in "bail out funds" but have not told the public what they are actually going to do with it. In the past the Government has not told the truth to the American people, and now they will not come out with a clear mandate for the 700 Billion, so this is just driving confidence through the floor.
There is also the sentiment the Government wanted to get the election out of the way.

Expect the unexpected! Expect the unprecedented!

THE GOVERNMENT CANNOT TOLERATE A PROLONGED RECESSION! WHY?

The Sub Prime Crisis may have been a 1.5 Trillion Dollar cancer, but there is a much much bigger problem that lays dormant, and the Government, absolutely cannot let this become a problem. What is this?

CORPORATE BONDS MARKET - this is a 65 Trillion Dollar potential problem. The US Govenment will do what ever it has to do to keep this market from being a problem. The Government is not worried about the stock market, this can find it's own level, but the corporate bond market must be protected no matter what. Even if the Govt has to actually buy these Corporations they will do it!

In a recession, 1/3 loose money and 2/3rds make money.

Right now corporate profits are easing, but by the last 4th quarter 09 this will change, profits will be back, Stock Market will be up, Market Confidence will be up, Business and consumer sending will be up.

What are the odds? There is a 30% chance the Government will not communicate clearly with the public and confidence will not be restored. However we have the "Obama factor", and this is a very big positive.

Why do we say corporate profits will be up in the 4th quarter 09?, On average a recession lasts 17 months, business spending stopped Jan 08, so business has already been in recession for 10 or so months.

Unemployment will peak in November 09.

The Stock Market will bounce back in the Spring.

REMEMBER - the Government will do what ever it needs to to protect itsself!
* Lower interest rates - some say to 0% but it will more likely to be 2 - 3%
* Forgive a portion of every home owners mortgage, let's say the mortgage is $200,000, the Government may say, from now on this mortgage is only going to be $170,000. Would be calculated on a "loan to value ratio" possibly
* Give away a lump sum of cash to each person. This has happened before. Remember consumer spending is 71.2% of all spending, so if the consumer confidence comes back and they start spending, this will drive the economy forwards. It is interesting that the Government has already given out $600 to each person, but this did not have the desired effect as in the main the public response was to save the cash or pay it off their mortgage. The Government will not make the same mistake again, they will give the money by voucher that has an expiry date or something like that.
* Increase the Prime Lending Limit. Freddy Mac and Fanny May are there to help the average Americal purchase homes. Right now they are under Government contol but not doing their job! So they need to begin lending in greater volumes.

The growth sectors of the economy are -
* Retail * Food * Entertainment * Education * Health Services
The sectors in decline are -
* Hotels * Professional and Business Services * Transport

History shows there are only 3 ways to protect onesself from recession -
* Buy Gold
* Purchase Real Estate
* Go to another Country
Buying Gold is not really an option, in previous recessions we have seen the price of Gold fall substantially, this will happen again.
Going to another Country is just too risky.
AND THAT LEAVES JUST REAL ESTATE!

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE -
There is a 12 - 18 month pipeline of new commercial real estate.
Anyone who has owned commercial real estate for more that 4 years is in an excellent position as long as they are not carrying too much debt. It is those who have entered transactions in the last 24 months or so that have been over priced and poorly underwitten that are at grave risk.
Developers are committed to the projects but wished they were not - certainly their banks wished they were not committed. But there is no turning back and this real estate will eventually come onto a very difficult market.
This has not gone unnoticed to this investment funds with serious cash - there is around 130 Billion Dollars in "Vulure Funds" waiting to take advantage of this situation.
When would be the right time to enter the commercial market? 2 - 3 years time. There will be a turnaround once the current problems flush through.

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE -
I will deal with this in a separate blog. WHY? Becuase some of this information is outside the scope of what this Economist spoke to.

Saturday, November 8, 2008

ENTERTAINMENT AT NAR CONFERENCE

Lionel Richie concert last night - a real blast - tickets limited to 7000
Sunday night we are being hosted by Universal Studios
All free as part of the conference.

AMERICA TODAY

AMERICA TODAY - Excepts from a speach from Lawrence Yun NAR's Chief Economist
The depth of the recession in America is directly linked to recovery in the housing market
Obama is already talking about a plan to stimulate housing.
What is recession? Where there is negative growth reported for 3 sucessive quarters.
America is no stranger to recession - every ten years there has been a recession in America -
* Mid 70's - resulted in little change in the housing market
* Early 80's - interest rates increased, there was a 50% reduction in home sales
* Early 90's - there was a modest decline in home sales
* Early 00's - there was lower mortgage interest rates, this resulted in an increase in home sales
90% of All Americans have employment - even if unemployment rates rise, this 90% figure will still be true (Unemployment is around 6% at present). Americans respond well to opportunity and incentive, this was evident in the last recession, interest rates were low, so even in recession there was an increase in home sales.
It is the same right now, in California and Florida home sales are double or triple what they were 12 months ago. Homes are more affordable, volume has increased. Forclosures and short sales (owners who have to sell quickly) represent 30 - 40% of this sales volume.
Low prices are not a concern, it is falling prices that cause buyers to wait.
Real Estate Inventory Levels are higher, but not too high. During the boom there was 4 months stock, normal is 6 months stock, now there is 10 months stock. So inventory levels are not too bad really.
The main casue of the problem has been the subprime market, this market has seen a 30% default rate. What is subprime? (It is a little different that what one may first think)
PRIME - Are loans of less than $417,000
SUBPRIME - fall into two categories Loans $418,000 to $728,000 (Jumbo Loans) and loans over $729,000 (Super Jumbo Loans)
I was speaking to Wells Fargo Bank - lending in the Prime Sector is still relatively easy, even for those non resident borrowers. Lending in the Subprime Sector is a "no go" zone, even for Americans. The Banks just cannot fund them.
From the peak of the Real Estate Market 2 Trillion Dollars has been wiped from values
Obama will be facing a balance of payments defecit of 1 Trillion Dollars this year (estimates)
HERE IS A VERY INTERESTING FACT - Whilst distressed sales represent 35 - 40% of the current volume of transactions, it is not speculative vultures that make up the bulk of the buyers, NO, 80% of all recent buyers have been those purchasing for primary ownership.
AMERICA IS ON SALE! DO YOU WANT A SLICE?

Thursday, November 6, 2008

COMMENT ON THE US MARKET GENERALLY

We have just attended a function put on by the NAR welcoming all the international realtors to the conference.
Attendees from 55 countries.
We had opportunity to speak with a variety of Realtors from around the US, the sentiment differs greatly from State to State, and even different markets within a State.
Some general statements -
1) Overall the market seems to be down 38% from its peak 2 years ago
2) In areas where there is foreclosures and mortgage stress it is possible to purchase excellent property at a discount approaching 50%, expecially if more than 1 property being purcahsed
3) Then there are the markets that are very challenged, it is in these areas that we see the prices that are very very low with the properties needing rehab.
4) Then there are areas like Detroit, probably the worst hit, prices are at giveaway levels.

There is quite a lot of optimism amongst the realtors we spoke to, all agree that there have been very challenging times, none were foolish or brave enough to say the market was at the bottom, however most agree that if not at the bottom, it is near the bottom and there are excellent buying opportunities.

I had been told that the bulk deals with the banks were reducing as banks could achieve a better outcome negotiating deals on an individual basis. I find this is not so, that there are still banks and consortiums of banks who want to deal in the large volumes of sales without getting the local realtors involved. It seems to me that Banks just want to get these properties off their books, at what ever cost. I will be persuing this further.

It also seems where there is a non profit organisation linked to the transaction the Banks are giving added favour with pricing. There is not problem in us setting up such a link.

There is still a lot of work to do, but in the US at the moment there is some great opportunities.

US BANK ACCOUNT

OPENING A US BANK ACCCOUNT - Is step 2
This is not an bank account for onesself as an individual, but a bank account for ones Corporate Entity, LLC and CCorp.
There are some challenges to ovecome. The US has tightened up on the process of opening bank accounts, the key aspect that will present challenges to our clients is that one must present to a bank in person to sign forms.
The simple answer would seem to be to use a Bank that has representation or at least an office or two in Australia.
There are three Banks I am investigating - Bank of America, Citibank, and Wells Fargo.
In saying this, for many the cost of operating a US bank account may be able to be avoided. What is a bank account required for anyway? To receive funds and pay bills.
I believe this may be able to be done through a Trust Account system.
I will report further on this.

NAR CONFERENCE

We have registered this morning and have our conference packs and access cards.
The list of exhibitors is extensive, hundreds in fact. There are some of definite interest, the exhibition hall opens for the first time tomorrow.
Tonight there is a function for International Delegates we will attend.

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

YIELD - 20%

I still belive the minimum yield will be 20%

I get excited about this!

Structure

STRUCTURE IS STEP 1 -

You will remember in our initial material we suggested the cost of setting up the structure would be around US$2,500.

Our committment is, on each step we will check and double check advice and seek wherever possible to reduce costs.

So here is where we are up to -

What structure to set up will depend on the individual, there are two types - One involves just an LLC, the other involves and LLC and a CCorp.

We work on a principle called TAP
T - Tax efficiency
A - Asset protection
P - Privacy

It is possible to just use an LLC, registered in Nevada, and have a very good structure to purchase property in any State in the US. The LLC would allow one to purchase property in any State in the US but to deliver absolutely on TAP, once should link the LLC to a CCorp. This is the ultimate structure.

The full structure and ancillary costs will be around US$1,600 as I see it. This is a good reduction on the $2,500 we first estimated.

Here is a breakdown of how the US$1,600 is made up -
* Cost to set up CCorp $298
* Cost to set up LLC $298
* Registered agents fee $0
* Filing fee for CCorp $150
* Filing fee for LLC $150
* Cost to obtain ITIN (Tax number) $99
* Attorney's help with ITIN $150
* Time in attendance $400

Once set up one has legal entities registered in Nevada, that have a physical address in Nevada, where mail goes to and is then processed and Fedexed to Australia. To keep costs down this would initially all be sent in one Fedex parcel to us and then we would onsend to clients Australian address's.

There are ongoing fees associated with these entities, reregistration fees, filing fees, time in attendance costs, etc. One should allow US $790 for this.

Caz and I will be immediately moving to have our entities registered. We will keep you posted with the timeframes on this and any hassles that present in the process.

We have a dedicated team of professionals in Las Vegas undertaking this work for us.

Will talk again tomorrow.

PARKO

Arrived in Orlando Wed 5th 4.30pm Orlando Time

We are staying opposite this building that has been buit upside down, even the palm trees are growing from the roof downward. It's called Wonder Works. I was just wanting to make sure I could upload pictures okay with my limited knowledge of blogger.
Looking forward to some sleep, the NAR conference starts Fri Orlando time, we just have to sort out our registration.

Sunday, November 2, 2008

U.S. Investment opportunity

Ray White Projects SA is currently putting together an opportunity for Australian clients to purchase investment property in the United States of America.

We are travelling to Florida this week to set up this opportunity with the required legal, banking and realty professionals.

Interested?? keep watching this blog for more information on our trip and progress.

Further information can be received by emailling me at david.parkinson@raywhite.com